+Susen Rogen

Wednesday 20 November 2013

United Arab Emirates Shipping Report Q1 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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United Arab Emirates Shipping Report Q1 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

Headline Industry Data ? 2014 Jebel Ali and Port Rashid total tonnage throughput growth forecast at 5.4%, and to average 4.5% to 2018. ? Sharjah terminals container throughput (KCT and SCT) is forecast to grow by 5.9% in 2014, averaging 6.2% over the medium term. ? Jebel Ali container throughput is forecast to grow by 7.3% in 2014. Through to 2018, we expect growth to average 5.9%. ? Total trade real growth is forecast at 6.9% in 2014 and to average 5.3% through to 2018.

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Mozambique Autos Report Q1 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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Mozambique Autos Report Q1 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

BMI sees favourable conditions for growth in both passenger cars and commercial vehicles in Mozambique. Driving passenger car sales over the next five years will be a burgeoning middle class and higher levels of disposable income. Meanwhile, the commercial vehicles (CV) segment is set to benefit from Mozambique’s infrastructure sector, which we believe holds one of the strongest growth outlooks across the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region. Investment in mining and more recently gas exploration is necessitating the construction of support infrastructure, with an estimated US$30bn in projects in the pipeline. Beyond industrial demand for commercial vehicles, BMI also expects to …

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Nigeria Freight Transport Report Q1 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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Nigeria Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

There will be strong growth across all freight sectors in Nigeria in 2014 and through the medium term. There is growing interest in air freight in the country, from regional and international players, there is significant investment going into the ports sector, and the rail freight sector is being relaunched. This will be supported by a growing population with increasing wealth for disposable goods, coupled with a burgeoning non-oil manufacturing sector. While there are risks given infrastructure lags and potential political risk in the run-up to 2015 elections, we are confident that the outlook for the freight transport sector in …

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Cameroon Autos Report Q1 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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Cameroon Autos Report Q1 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

Cameroon’s new vehicle market is a fraction of the size of some its larger regional neighbours, but its growth rate has been similarly marginal. Car ownership is still low by regional standards and is only just expected to pass 20 cars per 1,000 people during our five-year forecast period to 2017, which suggests there is not the same level of middle class development as in some of the bigger sub-Saharan African markets. Several economic episodes have reduced demand for new cars in favour of cheaper second-hand alternatives. These include the economic crisis of the 1980s, the franc’s devaluation and the …

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United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report Q1 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

The UAE is expected to continue to see strong growth in 2014, across all of its freight modes. The country is rapidly developing one of the world’s top logistics markets through investments in ports, airports, rail and free trade zones. These are utilised by the country’s air freight and logistics companies, which are becoming a familiar presence throughout the world, serving the globe from their UAE hubs. Headline Industry Data ? 2014 Jebel Ali and Port Rashid total tonnage throughput growth forecast at 5.4% and to average 4.5% per annum to 2018. ? 2014 air freight tonnes through Dubai International …

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Canada Freight Transport Report Q1 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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Canada Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

Canada’s freight transport sector will see a slight uptick in growth in Q114, in line with the country’s economic growth. BMI forecasts that Canada’s economy will expand by 2.4% in 2014. BMI cautions that household consumption growth will remain weak in 2014, growing at 2.0%, following a 1.9% outturn in 2012. Our core view is that households will continue to restrain expenditure amid stretched balance sheets, while income growth remains subdued, putting downward pressure on demand for imports. The picture for exports looks brighter. Canadian exports to the US, it appears as though shipments to the US are set to …

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Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Autos Report 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Autos Report 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

BMI View: BMI holds an optimistic outlook on auto production and sales in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Both countries boast solid macroeconomic fundamentals and both are seeing strong demand for cars from their citizens. Turning to production first, Kazakh auto production looks set for strong growth over BMI’s five-year forecast period to 2017. This reflects new production plans by three carmakers; Japan’s Toyota Motor, France’s PSA Peugeot Citroen and Russia’s AvtoVAZ.

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Australia Freight Transport Report Q1 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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Australia Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

We expect to see a deterioration in the outlook for Australia’s fiscal balances under the new government, given the Liberal-National coalition’s enthusiasm to go ahead with proposed infrastructure plans, despite increasing signs of a pick-up in the economy. Indeed, Treasurer Joe Hockey’s recent proposal to account separately for debt used to fund infrastructure further points to the coalition’s declining keenness to pursue fiscal discipline. Given the lack of structural reforms on the cards, we have downgraded our outlook for the country’s fiscal accounts, expecting the deficit for fiscal year 2014/15 (July-June) to widen to 1.9% of GDP, versus our previous …

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Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q1 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

Although we expect the Vietnamese economy to record yet another quarter of sub-par growth in Q4 2013 (at the time of writing), we are beginning to see potential for upside surprises to domestic demand over the coming quarters, providing potential comfort to the country’s freight mix. Recent data on foreign direct investment inflows, remittances, passenger car sales, and property market launches, suggests to us that domestic demand is on a nascent recovery, setting the stage for stronger 2014 growth. The general consensus is expecting the Vietnamese economy to suffer yet another quarter of sub-par growth mainly due to subdued external …

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Argentina Autos Report Q1 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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Argentina Autos Report Q1 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

In the first nine months of 2013, vehicle sales in Argentina increased 19.0% y-o-y, to 718,318 units. The market has registered sharp increases over the past few months, in line with recent improvements in broader measures of private consumption. Further, currency effects have played a large part in this strong year-todate growth in autos sales. On the back of strong sales over the year to date, we forecast a 17% increase in vehicle sales. We caution, however, that such growth may prove to be unsustainable in the longer term, and there are considerable downside risks to our forecast. Despite this …

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Argentina Freight Transport Report Q1 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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Argentina Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

BMI maintains its cautious outlook for the Argentine freight transport sector. The country enjoys a good commodities mix, but it continues to struggle with external headwinds as well as internal difficulties in the form of rising inflation and ongoing labour unrest. We continue to expect that Argentine real GDP growth bottomed in 2013 at an estimated 1.8%. We expect a slight rebound in 2014, with growth set o reach 2.9%. Nevertheless, we caution that the country will continue to struggle with spiralling inflation and net exports’ drag on real GDP growth. On top of its internal economic difficulties, we highlight …

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Serbia Freight Transport Report Q1 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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Serbia Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

Following a year in which BMI believes saw mixed trends in different freight modes, 2014 will signal slow to moderate growth across all freight modes. Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 6.15% in 2014 following an estimated growth of 7.15% in 2013. Road freight is to grow at a highest pace, with 7% increase predicted, although rail freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 1% in 2014. The sector did not manage to defy the downturn but quickly recovered its pre-2009 freight …

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Tanzania Autos Report Q1 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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Tanzania Autos Report Q1 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

Although the near-term outlook for new car sales in Tanzania remains downbeat as we enter 2014, BMI remains of the opinion that Tanzania has the potential to become a key auto logistics hub for the wider East African region over the long term, provided radical changes and investment into key infrastructure are made. This quarter, BMI leaves its forecasts for new car sales in Tanzania unchanged, estimating that just 4,535 new vehicles will be sold in the country in 2017, up from around 4,000 sales at present. This downbeat view reflects the fact that new cars remain unaffordable to the …

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Chile Autos Report 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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Chile Autos Report 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

Vehicle sales in Chile increased 15.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first eight months of 2013, to 242,257 units. BMI forecasts a 10% increase over the course of the year. We expect sales to moderate somewhat in the latter part of the year, as we believe the country’s weak private consumption story and weakness in the mining sector will start to filter through to the market, and higher base effects from strong H212 sales volumes will temper the growth rate. We believe that the Chilean consumer is entering a period of slower growth over the medium term, which has partly informed …

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Algeria Autos Report Q1 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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Algeria Autos Report Q1 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

Over the past quarter, there were further key developments in Algeria’s journey to becoming a car producing nation. At the end of September 2013, French carmaker Renault announced that construction work had commenced at the new Oued Tiélat factory in Oran province, with hopes that the first Algerianbuilt car should be produced in November 2014. According to a Renault press release, the company has also started the hiring process for new workers, with the new plant set to lead to the direct creation of over 350 jobs. Successful candidates will be trained by Renault and local training centres. Renault believes …

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Italy Freight Transport Report Q1 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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Italy Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

Although the recession in Italy shows clear signs of having bottomed out, the recovery remains fragile and at risk from a renewed bout of political instability. We estimate real GDP to contract by 1.5% in 2013, before returning to positive growth of just 0.3% and 0.7% in 2014 and 2015 respectively. The Italian freight sector appears to be making a steady recovery too, showing positive signs over the medium term, buffered by new developments in European trade links. Headline Industry Data ? Port of Genoa cargo volume set to rise by 0.3% to 54.534mn tonnes in 2013 (down fractionally from …

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Japan Autos Report Q1 2014:Automotive & Transportation Market Research Reports

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Japan Autos Report Q1 2014
Nov 20th 2013, 00:00, by vyankatesh

According to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA), August vehicle production (latest data available) declined 7.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 680,487 units. This brought auto production for the first eight months of the year to 6,251,777 units, a decrease of 9.5% y-o-y. However, we believe production will have picked up in September and will continue to do so for the rest of 2013. While official JAMA production figures for September are still unavailable, the phenomenal 17.0% y-o-y surge in sales for that month suggests to us that production also saw strong increases.

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