BMI is sticking with a below-consensus 2013 growth forecast of 7.5%. The main risk to our economic outlook remains another collapse in external demand, such as the one that occurred at the height of the global financial crisis. This would seriously undermine growth in trade-dependent industries and hasten a fall in the property market, potentially leading to an outright recession. Despite current stability in the global economy, China is at risk from its huge trade imbalance with the US. The bilateral surplus that China runs with the US continues to balloon. Should we see a rise in the personal savings …
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